Forum(s) Objectives:
- To present and discuss monthly and seasonal 2023/24 climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks
- To discuss and determine how monthly and seasonal outlooks are produced in terms of accuracy, utility, weaknesses and strengths
- To discuss how NMHSs are currently accessing and assessing the available guidance, making them nationally relevant, tailoring themfor specific end users, and disseminating them to users;
- Climate change projection updates; and
- To discuss how ENSO impacts the agriculture and fisheries sector, sector climate information needs, how NMHS products can be improved and how NMHS can improve their media and social media products for the community.
Expected Outcomes:
- Improved understanding of climate and ocean monitoring and prediction information and better understanding of outlook confidence/skill for each country
- Regional statement on climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for 2023/24 which NMHSs can use as guide to develop their national statements
- Better understanding of fisheries and agricultural sector climate and ocean information needs
- Improved climate and ocean bulletins, media and social media messages better meeting stakeholder and community needs
- PICOF Statement and PICOF report
Documents
Details
Date
Location
Fiji
Agenda
Registration
Responsible
- SPREP
Opening and Setting the Scene
- Opening prayer
- Opening remarks
- Meeting objectives
Responsible
- NMS Rep
- SPREP Rep
- WMO Rep
- Fiji Government
- PICS Panel/RCC Management Committee Chair
Session 1: ENSO Status and Outlook
Including highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)
Responsible
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
Morning Tea and Group Photo
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of May to October Climate Outlook.
- Atmosphere
Overview of November to April state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook - Ocean
Overview of November to April state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook - Tropical cyclones
Overview of the TCs over May to October - Impacts
Overview of climate and ocean impacts over the last six months: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA
Responsible
(20 minutes each)
- NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
- NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
- NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
- NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
Session 3: Looking Back Long-Term: Status of key variables
A brief examination of long-term trends for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2023, these will be Tropical Cyclones & Surface Winds and Sea Level
Responsible
(10 minutes each)
- NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
Lunch
Session 4: Looking Forward – Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks for November 2023 to April 2024
- Atmosphere
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison [download presentation] - Ocean
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison [download presentation] - Tropical cyclones
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison [download presentation]
Responsible
(20 minutes each)
- NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
- NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
- NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
Afternoon Tea
Session 5: Looking Forward Long-Term
A brief review of climate change projections for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2023, these will be Tropical Cyclones & Surface Winds and Sea Level
Responsible
CSIRO, UGCRP, BoM and SPREP
Session 6: Annual-to-Decadal Prediction
What is annual to decadal prediction? WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2021 to 2025
Responsible
Met Office Hadley Centre
Session 7: Summary of proceedings & feedback
Drafting committees produce Day 1 component of the PICOF-13 Report and Statement including media version of the outlooks.
Registration
Responsible
- SPREP
Welcome and objectives for the day
Session 1: Presentation on key messages from Day 1 tailored for sector representatives
Discussion: opportunity for sector representatives obtain more information
Responsible
Chair of the PICOF Statement Drafting Committee
Morning Tea & Group Photo
Session 2: Sectors work with NMHSs to identify likely impacts for the 2023/24 El Niño event based on impacts associated with past events
Group work by country and sector
Divide into six groups large country agriculture, medium country agriculture and small country agriculture. Same for fisheries (6 groups)
Responsible
Simon McGree
Session 3: Identify regional stakeholders and co-explore needs. (5min presentation & panel discussion)
Identify stakeholders on the regional level in the agriculture and fisheries sectors space and their needs.
- SPC (agriculture, livestock, pests and diseases)
- PIFON
Responsible
- Gibson Susumu, SPC
- PIFON
Lunch
Session 4: Review of existing NMHS climate and ocean products and services and explore way forward in terms of improving and/or developing new solutions. Focus specifically on tailored bulletins for the agricultural and fisheries sector
Do they understand the bulletins? Is it the right information? How could the content and presentation be improved? How can the sectors apply existing NMHS information in their operations? Would they? Which of their target 'client' groups would benefit and how? How often would they want it? Every month? Or only when something interesting is happening? Would their client groups understand it or do they need simplified products/social media content?
Responsible
Simon McGree
Afternoon Tea
Session 5: Agri-Fisheries Value Chain
- Co-development of products
- Various UIPs
Responsible
Patricia Mallam
Registration
Responsible
- SPREP
Session 1: Welcome and program outline
Responsible
- Program Manager ClimSA
Session 2: Vanuatu Tailored System of Climate Services of Agriculture
Responsible
- Sunny Seuseu
Session 3: OSCAR and Agro-Met Bulletins: Bridging the Climate Service Gap for Vanuatu
Responsible
- Dr Jong Ahn Chun
Morning Tea
Session 4: Best practices and lessons from Van-KIRAP project
Responsible
- Mr. Pakoa Leo
- Mrs Moirah Matou
Session 5: Panel Discussion, Beyond Forecasting: Co-Developing Resilience in Vanuatu’s Agriculture and Fisheries
Responsible
- Mr. Pakoa Leo
- Mrs Moirah Matou
- Mr. Ham Jayven
- Dr Jong Ahn Chun
Lunch
Session 6: Discussion on requirements for regional agrometeorological and fisheries bulletins
- SPC Horizon Scan Activity
Responsible
- Dr. Ramona Stephanie O’Conner (SPC)
Session 7: Workshop Evaluation
Workshop evaluation, finalization and release of PICOF statement/outlook (media version)
Responsible
- PICOF Statement Drafting Committee
- PICS Panel Chair
Afternoon Tea
