Hybrid: Melanesian Hotel, Port Vila and via Zoom
The Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) is based on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Outlook Forum concept.
The PICOF is co-organised by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network (RCC-N), with technical support provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau), Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ), APEC Climate Centre (APCC), Meteo-France, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Pacific Community (SPC) and the University of Hawaii as members of the Pacific RCC-N Node for Long-Range Forecasting in partnership with the Pacific Islands Climate Services (PICS) Panel. The latter ensures the needs of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), and their stakeholders are met. PICOF-17 is co-sponsored by the Australian and New Zealand Aid funded Climate and Ocean Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) and SPREP CLIMSA. Ongoing BOM, SPREP and SPC support is largely funded by COSPPac. Additional information on PICOF and the WMO Pacific RCC Network is available via the Pacific Met Desk Website
Overall objective:
To discuss and produce objective, user-relevant regional climate and ocean outlook guidance in real time to support Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs), NMHSs produce national climate and oceans climate information for their national stakeholders, with the ultimate aim to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development for the coming season in sectors of critical socioeconomic significance.
Objectives:
- Review the climate and oceanic conditions in the western Pacific region for the period 1 April to 21 October 2025;
- Present and discuss long-term trends and projections for selected climate and ocean variables;
- Present monthly and seasonal climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for the north Pacific region for the season to October 2025;
- Discuss and review confidence/skill associated with November 2025 to April 2026 outlooks based on the discussions associated with 1-3.
Expected Outcomes:
- Improved understanding of climate and ocean monitoring and prediction specifically for the target monitoring and prediction periods.
- Enhanced understanding of outlook confidence/skill for the period in question;
- A regional PICOF statement containing climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for November 2025 to April 2026 which NMHSs can use as guide to develop their national statements;
- A PICOF-17 report;
- Content for regional partner and NMHSs climate and ocean bulletins as well as media and social media releases.
Documents
Details
Date
Location
Registration including morning tea
Group photograph
Responsible
SPREP
(6.30am Palau time, 11.30am Honolulu time and 9.30pm UTC)
Opening and Setting the Scene
- MC – Simon McGree
Opening prayer
- Philip Malsale
Opening remarks
- PMC Chair (Levu Antfalo)
- WMO (Henry Taiki)
- SPREP (Salesa Nihmei)
Meeting objectives
- PICS Panel/RCC Management Committee Chair
Morning tea
Session 1: ENSO Status and Outlook
Including highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)
Responsible
ESNZ, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of May to October Climate Outlook
- Atmosphere
Overview of April to October state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook - Ocean
Overview of April to October state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook - Tropical cyclones
Overview of the TCs over May to October - Impacts - Overview of significant weather and ocean events over the last six months
- Micronesian region
- Melanesian region
- Polynesian region
Responsible
(First 3 subsections, 15 minutes each, 4th subsection 25 minutes)
- NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, ESNZ
- NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, ESNZ
- NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, ESNZ
- FSM, PNG and Samoa (10 minutes each)
Session 3: Looking Forward – Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks for November 2025 to April 2026
- Atmosphere
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison - Ocean
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison - Tropical cyclones
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison
Responsible
(25 minutes each)
- ESNZ, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
- ESNZ, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
- ESNZ, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
Afternoon tea
Session 4: Annual-to-Decadal Prediction
Responsible
Met Office Hadley Centre
Session 5: Looking Back and Forward Long-Term
- 5.1 Looking Back and Forward
- 5.2 Tropical cyclones
Responsible
CSIRO, UGCRP, BOM, ESNZ and SPREP
Summary of proceedings
Responsible
PICS panel chair
Objective of the day
Responsible
Pacific RCC-N (Chair)
Presentation on development Pacific RCC-N website
Questions and Discussion
Responsible
Pacific RCC-N (Chair)
Morning tea
Exercise: Evaluation of development website
- General pages
- Node on LRF
- Node on Climate Monitoring
- Node on Climate Change
- Node on Operational Data Management
- Training
Participants spend 10 minutes at a table then move to the next one.
Responsible
Philip, Elise, Terry, Patricia, Nico, Jin-Ho
Report back, Next steps and conclusions
Lunch
