National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) throughout the Pacific Islands region are mandated by their governments to regularly produce country-specific long range climate forecasts and disseminate these to their national stakeholders. The resources shown below aid this process by providing regularly-updated global- and regional-scale climate model output, analysis tools, and consensus-based forecast and validation products.
Regional and sub-regional weekly to seasonal forecasts (displaying rainfall, air temperature, sea level, tropical cyclones etc.) and associated hindcast verification images are provided below by node on long range forecasting co-leads and consortium members. Where images do not have a static url, are embedded in documents or webpages they are presented under Important Links and Functions below
Important Functions & Links
| Activity | Product | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Generate regional and subregional tailored products, relevant to RCC user needs, including seasonal outlooks etc. | WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Multi-Model Ensemble | Multi-model ensemble imagery and data from the WMO LC-LRFMME, which is used to help compile the PICOF statement |
| Global Seasonal Climate Update | The WMO GCSU summarizes the current status and expected future behaviour of seasonal climate in terms of major general circulation features and large-scale oceanic anomalies around the globe | |
| Bureau of Meteorology Global and Pacific ACCESS-S outlooks | Weekly to seasonal ACCESS-S multi-variable global, regional and national outlooks | |
| Bureau of Meteorology South Pacific tropical cyclone season forecast | Annually-issued tropical cyclone outlooks for the Southwest Pacific region | |
| NIWA Island Climate Update | A monthly summary of the climate in the tropical South Pacific islands, with an outlook for the coming months | |
| NIWA Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook | Annually-issued tropical cyclone outlook for the Southwest Pacific region | |
| PEAC seasonal rainfall forecast | Monthly-issued seasonal rainfall outlook for Hawaii and the USAPI | |
| Tropical Pacific Island Rainfall Outlooks | NOAA monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks for Hawaii and the USAPI | |
| NMME forecasts for the international regions | NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble monthly and seasonal outlooks for global regions including the Pacific | |
| Météo-France seasonal forecast | Météo-France S8 monthly and seasonal outlooks for globe regions including the Pacific | |
| APEC Climate Center climate predictions | Monthly-issued climate monitoring and outlook information | |
| CLimate Information toolkit Pacific (CLIKⓟ) | The APEC Climate Center CLIKⓟ provides Pacific oriented information using the multi-model dynamical seasonal forecast based on different combinations of the user’s preferences | |
| PICASO | The APEC Climate Center PICASO is a seasonal prediction tool tailored for the Pacific Island countries, jointly developed by APCC and SPREP | |
| Seasonal Climate Outlooks for Pacific Island Countries (SCOPIC) | SCOPIC uses a statistical method to determine forecast probabilities, based on historic data, and provides graphics and text to support the outlooks | |
| University of Hawaii Sea Level Center Sea Level Forecasts | Outlook of monthly sea level anomalies for the next two seasons | |
| Pacific Ocean Portal | The SPC Pacific Community Ocean Portal provides forecasts and outlooks of ocean variables and tides |
| Activity | Product | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange basic forecast and hindcast data. | Bureau of Meteorology global sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast data Weekly Fortnightly Monthly Seasonal | ACCESS-S data that can be downloaded to create LRF products |
| NIWA sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast data | C3S-MME data that can be downloaded to create LRF products |
| Activity | Product | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Perform verification of RCC quantitative LRF products. | Bureau of Meteorology Global and Pacific ACCESS-S outlooks hindcast skill | This website includes weekly to seasonal ACCESS-S multi-variable global, regional and national outlooks hindcast skill products |
| Bureau of Meteorology ACCESS-S tropical cyclone outlook hindcast skill | Multi-week tropical cyclone guidance document including hindcast skill assessment | |
| NIWA Island Climate Update hindcast skill | Island Climate Update & RCC-N input key information, development and workstreams |
| Activity | Product | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Generate consensus statement on regional or subregional forecasts | Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) | Twice yearly Pacific RCC-N regional climate outlook forum |
| NOAA monthly conference of the Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (PEAC) | A monthly monitoring and outlook forum for the USAPI | |
| SPREP Ocean Climate Outlook Forum (OCOF) | A monthly climate and ocean monitoring and outlook forum for 15 Pacific Island NMHSs |
| Activity | Product | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Media and social media products | NIWA Island Climate Update video | |
| NIWA Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook video |
Support members
Co-Lead
Co-Lead
Consortium member
Consortium member
Consortium member
Consortium member
Consortium member
Consortium member
