Forum(s) Objectives:
Overall objective:
Produce consensus-based, user-relevant climate outlook guidance in real time to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development for the coming season for the Pacific Island region.
The specific objectives of PICOF 8 include the following:
- To present and summarise the climate and ocean observations in the last six months and model outlooks for the next six months
- To compare forecast guidance for the Pacific region and discuss how these are produced in terms of accuracy, utility, weaknesses and strengths
- To build collaboration and partnerships among NMHSs, regional organisations and scientific institutions
- To continue capacity building/human resource development activities for the Pacific region, particularly in seasonal prediction
- To provide a platform for the NMHSs to share and exchange experiences and knowledge on climate and ocean services in the Pacific region
Expected Outcomes:
- Improved understanding of the drivers of Pacific Island climate and including the climate and ocean state in the last six months
- Improved understanding of climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for the next six months
- Regional statement summarising the ENSO state, tropical cyclone, climate and ocean patterns from November 2020 and outlooks for these variables to October 2021
Proposed Timeline for PICOF Statement development
- Monday 15 March 2021: Pacific NMSs notified of upcoming virtual PICOF April 2021
- Friday 16 April 2021: Deadline for consortium members to send content to the node lead/co-leads to include in the PowerPoint presentations.
- Monday 19 April 2021: Deadline for PowerPoint presentations to be send to the PICS panel secretariat to be circulated to PICS panel members and PICOF participants.
- Wednesday 21 April 2021: Virtual PICOF April 2021 teleconference held (see proposed agenda below).
- Friday 23 April 2021: Final draft of the PICOF statement sent to the PMC members for approval, deadline for responses Wednesday 28 April 2021.
- Thursday 29 April 2021: Virtual PICOF April 2021 Statement released
Details
Date
21 April 2021
Location
Virtual
Agenda
Time (Samoa)
Agenda Item
Presentations
1:15pm - 1:30pm
Registration and communications testing
- SPREP to coordinate and provide all supporting details and documents prior
1:30pm - 2:00pm
Agenda 1: Opening & setting the scene
- Opening prayer
- Welcome and meeting procedures
- Opening remarks -PMC Chair (Samoa MRNE CEO)
- PICOF-8 meeting objectives and survey results
- Group Photo
2:00pm - 2:20pm
Agenda 2: ENSO Update and Outlook
ENSO Status and Outlook, Status of ENSO tracker
NIWA/BOM/Meteo-France/NOAA-University of Hawaii/SPC/SPREP, 15 minutes
Question & Answer (5 mins)
2:20pm - 3:15pm
Agenda 3: Climate Monitoring Section: review & evaluation of November 2020 to April 2021
- Northern hemisphere rain, air temperature, sea surface temperature and sea level
Review of the last six months, plus evaluation of the respective outlooks. NIWA/BOM/Meteo-France/NOAA-University of Hawaii/SPC/SPREP, 12 minutes - Southern hemisphere rain, air temperature, sea surface temperature, sea level and coral bleaching
Review of the last six months, plus evaluation of the respective outlooks. NIWA/BOM/Meteo-France/NOAA-University of Hawaii/SPC/SPREP/RSMC Nadi, 12 minutes - Northern and Southern hemisphere tropical cyclones
Review of the last six months, plus evaluation of the respective outlooks. NIWA/BOM/Meteo-France/NOAA-University of Hawaii/SPC/SPREP/RSMC Nadi, 12 minutes - La Nina and TC impacts (SPREP), 9 Minutes -Short review of La Niña and tropical cyclone impacts in both Hemisphere
Questions & Answers (10 mins)
3:20pm - 4:25pm
Agenda 4: Intra-seasonal to Long-range Forecasting Section: outlooks for May to October 2021
- Surface Temperature, Rainfall, MSLP
NIWA/BOM/NOAA/University of Hawaii/APCC/SPREP/SPC, 20 minutes - Ocean temperature, Coral Bleaching and Sea level
NIWA/BOM/NOAA/University of Hawaii/APCC/SPREP/SPC, 20 minutes - North Pacific Typhoons
NOAA/University of Hawaii, 10 minutes
4:25pm - 4:30pm
Agenda 5: Closing
Next steps, wrap up
