Forum(s) Objectives:
- To discuss and produce objective, user-relevant regional climate and ocean outlook guidance in real time.
- Support member NMHSs produce national climate and oceans climate information for their national stakeholders, with the ultimate aim to reduce climate-related risks and support sustainable development for the coming season in sectors of critical socioeconomic significance.
Specific objectives
- Build partnerships among NMHSs and Pacific RCC Network members, to facilitate the uptake and use of climate and ocean products and services in Pacific RCC-N member countries
- Compare seasonal and subseasonal forecast guidance and discuss how these are produced in terms of accuracy, utility, weaknesses and strengths
- Present, discuss, and summarise the climate and ocean conditions for the last 6 months and model outlooks for the next 6 months
- Provide long-term monitoring of and present long-range projections for selected variables, as climate change has had and will continue to have a significant impact in the Pacific region
- Discuss how NMHSs are currently accessing and assessing the available guidance, making them nationally-relevant, tailoring them for specific end users, and disseminating them to users
- Continue capacity building/human resource development activities for the NMHSs, particularly on sectoral application aspects of seasonal and sub-seasonal predictions.
Documents
Details
Date
Location
Virtual
Agenda
Registration and communications testing
- Meeting procedures
Responsible
- SPREP to coordinate and provide all supporting details and documents prior.
Session 1: Opening and Setting the scene
- Opening prayer (Arieta Baleisolomone)
- Opening remarks (Tagaloa Cooper - SPREP)
- Opening remarks (Henry Taiki - WMO)
- Meeting objectives (Node for LRF representative)
- Group photo
Session 2: ENSO Update and Outlook
ENSO status and outlook, and introduction to ENSO tracker
Responsible
NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP and SPC (15 minutes)
Including
Highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)
- Agenda 2 discussion (5 minutes)
All PICOF are joint presentations. A representative from the agency in bold print will deliver the presentation with support/input from the remaining agencies referenced.
Session 3: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of May-October 2022 Climate outlook
- Atmosphere
Overview of May to October 2022 state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook:
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA (15 minutes). - Ocean
Overview of May to October 2022 state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook:
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA (15 minutes). - Tropical cyclones
Overview of the TCs over last six months:
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA (15 minutes). [Download Presentation]
Agenda 3 discussion (10 minutes)
Session 4: Looking Back Long-Term: Status of key variables
A brief examination of long-term trends for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2022, these will be rainfall and sea surface temperature:
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA (20 minutes).
Agenda 4 discussion (10 minutes)
- Tropical cyclones and sea level at PICOF-10
10 min break
Session 5: Looking Forward - Seasonal and Intra-seasonal Pacific guidance for 2022/23
- Atmosphere
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison:
NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, and SPC (15 minutes). - Ocean
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison:
NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, and SPC (15 minutes). - Tropical cyclones
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison:
NIWA, BoM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, and SPC (15 minutes)
Agenda 5 discussion (15 minutes)
Session 6: Looking Forward Long-Term
A brief review of long-term climate change projections for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2022, these will be rainfall and sea surface temperature: CSIRO, UGCRP, BoM and SPREP (20 minutes).
Agenda 6 discussion (10 minutes)
Session 7: Closing
Chair: Summary of proceedings, feedback from participants
Next steps: production of PICOF 11 Report, PICOF Statement, reminder of production deadlines.
